TODAY IN NUMBERS
SPORT · SATIRE · CAUSAL INVERSION

Minnesota Took 50 Rebounds in the First Meeting With St. Thomas Since 1934, Having Missed 37 Shots to Make Them Available

The Golden Gophers won 76-62 after leading by 18 at the interval. Neither side shot better than 38 per cent.

Minnesota beat St. Thomas 76-62 in Minneapolis on Friday night, in the first meeting between the two schools since 1934.

The Associated Press recap, carried by ESPN, records the interval: the two programmes had not played each other for 92 years.

Minnesota led 40-22 at the break and finished 14 ahead, having been as much as 21 points up.

Isaac Asuma led the Golden Gophers with 20 points, from six of ten from the field and four of four at the free-throw line, and made four of his side's 11 three-pointers. Jaylen Crocker-Johnson added 16 points and 10 rebounds, eight of them defensive.

Jeremy Lorenz led St. Thomas with 13 points, from five of 12 shooting and two of three at the line. Caden Wilkins took six rebounds for the Tommies and Austin Herro made five assists; Kyan Evans made four for Minnesota.

Neither side shot well. St. Thomas made 20 of 59 from the field, 34 per cent, and nine of 36 from three, 25 per cent. Minnesota made 23 of 60, 38 per cent, and 11 of 35 from three, 31 per cent.

Minnesota were the better side at the free-throw line, making 19 of 22 against St. Thomas's 13 of 18, and the more careless with the ball, giving it away 11 times to their opponents' six.

Both sides took most of their shots from distance. Of St. Thomas's 59 field-goal attempts, 36 were three-pointers; of Minnesota's 60, 35 were.

The decisive margin was on the boards. Minnesota took 50 rebounds to St. Thomas's 31.

St. Thomas in fact won the second half, 40-36, by which point the first-half lead had put the result out of reach.

The box score rewards a closer look, because the quantity that decided the game is also the one both sides were worst at.

Minnesota attempted 60 shots from the field and missed 37 of them. They attempted 35 from three and missed 24. They then took 50 rebounds.

A rebound is the thing a missed shot produces. On that basis Minnesota's 50 boards are not an achievement separate from their 38 per cent shooting. They are the same event, counted at the other end of its flight.

There is a complication. St. Thomas missed 39 from the field, two more than Minnesota, and finished with 31 rebounds, 19 fewer. The Department of Unnecessary Research has examined this and does not regard it as a refutation.

The rule holds. It simply requires that a side be present when its own misses come down. St. Thomas supplied the misses and Minnesota collected them, which is a division of labour rather than a contradiction.

Our analysts have put the finding in the form the sport prefers. Shooting badly creates rebounds; rebounding well requires somebody to shoot badly; and the first meeting in 92 years was therefore settled by the only skill both teams displayed.

TOTAL REBOUNDSQUESTIONABLE ANALYTICS
31St. Thomas
50Minnesota
Total rebounds as recorded in the ESPN box score: St. Thomas 31, Minnesota 50. Values are the rebound counts themselves.
THE BORING FACT

Minnesota beat St. Thomas 76-62 in Minneapolis on Friday, in the first meeting between the two schools since 1934. Minnesota made 23 of 60 field goals and took 50 rebounds to St. Thomas's 31.

Source: ESPN
OUR PROFESSIONAL CONCLUSION

Because a rebound is what a missed shot produces, Minnesota's 50 boards are not separate from their 38 per cent shooting but the same event counted at the other end, and the first meeting in 92 years was decided by the only skill both sides displayed.

REALITY CHECK · CAUSAL INVERSION

Unfortunately, there's a small problem.

Rebounds follow missed shots, but a 19-rebound margin reflects positioning, size and effort at both ends of the floor, not a benefit from shooting badly. Minnesota in fact missed two fewer field goals than St. Thomas and still took 19 more rebounds, which is the opposite of what the inference predicts.

THE BS DETECTOR

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Tap the paragraph where this story stopped being true. Then see where everyone else bailed.

 

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