TODAY IN NUMBERS
MARKETS · SATIRE · COUNTERFACTUAL BENCHMARKING

UOB's Profit Rises 182 Per Cent and the Shares Fall, Because Six People Had Written Down a Bigger Number

Singapore's UOB nearly tripled third-quarter net profit after setting aside far less for bad loans. It came in below the analysts' consensus, and the stock dropped about 5 per cent.

UOB's third-quarter net profit rose 182 per cent to S$1.25 billion, from S$443 million a year earlier. Its shares fell around 5 per cent in early trading.

The Singapore bank, the first of the three local lenders to report, said the jump was largely due to a sharp drop in provisions. It set aside S$258 million for credit and other losses in the three months to 30 September, down 81 per cent from S$1.36 billion a year earlier.

Measured against the previous quarter rather than the previous year, profit fell 15 per cent from S$1.48 billion. It also missed the S$1.38 billion forecast among six analysts polled by Bloomberg.

Net interest income, which measures the difference between what a bank earns from lending and pays on deposits, rose 1 per cent year on year to S$2.28 billion, as sustained loan growth offset pressure on margins.

Net fee income reached a record S$733 million, up 19 per cent on the same period last year and 10 per cent on the previous quarter, which the bank attributed to growth in wealth, cards and loan-related activity. Customer-related treasury income also reached a new high.

Assets under management grew 3 per cent year on year to S$204 billion. Across the first nine months of 2026, wealth income rose 13 per cent and card income was up 25 per cent. Wholesale banking loans grew 9 per cent, with trade loans up 31 per cent. Total expenses fell 4 per cent from the previous quarter to S$1.6 billion, in line with income moderation.

"The group continued to see healthy customer activity across our businesses this quarter, with strong growth in wealth management, healthy loan growth and record fees and customer-related treasury income," said chief executive and deputy chairman Wee Ee Cheong, who said the performance reflected the strength of a diversified franchise serving more than 8 million customers in the region.

All three Singapore banks had seen their shares fall on 2 November, before any of them had reported.

The arithmetic of the day deserves setting out plainly. The bank earned S$807 million more than it did a year ago and shed about a twentieth of its market value, because it earned S$130 million less than six people had estimated it would.

This newspaper regards the estimate as the more impressive achievement of the two. Last year's profit is a matter of record and cannot now be improved. The forecast is produced fresh each quarter, by people outside the bank, and is therefore the only input in the exercise that remains under anybody's control.

Read in that direction, the quarter was not a miss by UOB but a near miss by the poll. Six analysts came within 10 per cent of a figure they did not have, which in most fields would be reported as the finding rather than the benchmark.

It also follows that the quickest route to a strong quarter is a weaker consensus. A bank cannot go back and raise last year's provisions, but the number it is judged against is written down in advance by six people who are not the bank, and is accordingly the easiest part of any result to get right.

The Department of Unnecessary Research notes that all three Singapore lenders fell on 2 November, before a single set of figures had been published, and would like it recorded that this was the one moment in the quarter at which the market and the forecasts were in perfect agreement.

UOB QUARTERLY NET PROFIT AND THE FORECASTQUESTIONABLE ANALYTICS
30Q3 2025
100Q2 2026
93Forecast
84Q3 2026
Singapore dollars, scaled to the highest bar (Q2 2026, S$1.48bn = 100): S$443m, S$1.48bn, the S$1.38bn Bloomberg poll of six analysts, and S$1.25bn.
THE BORING FACT

UOB reported third-quarter net profit of S$1.25 billion on 4 November 2026, up 182 per cent from S$443 million a year earlier, after cutting provisions for credit and other losses by 81 per cent to S$258 million. The figure came in below the S$1.38 billion forecast of six analysts polled by Bloomberg, and the shares fell around 5 per cent in early trading.

Source: The Straits Times
OUR PROFESSIONAL CONCLUSION

Because a result is judged against a consensus rather than against last year, the only part of a bank's quarter that can still be influenced is the forecast, which makes a weaker consensus the quickest route to a strong quarter.

REALITY CHECK · COUNTERFACTUAL BENCHMARKING

Unfortunately, there's a small problem.

A share price responds to new information, and the new information was that earnings quality was below what the market had already priced in. Analyst forecasts are estimates of the future, not a target a company can lower to improve its own performance.

THE BS DETECTOR

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Tap the paragraph where this story stopped being true. Then see where everyone else bailed.

 

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