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MARKETS · SATIRE · FALSE PRECISION

Skydance Finds Exactly Six Billion Dollars of Savings by Adding Up Four Numbers That Were All Approximate

The merged studio told shareholders it can cut at least $6bn over three years from an expense base of more than $50bn. Two of the four components are floors and the other two are estimates.

Skydance, the company formed by combining Paramount Skydance with Warner Bros Discovery, told shareholders on Monday that it expects to cut at least 6 billion dollars of costs over three years by removing duplicated spending across the merged business.

The letter accompanied third-quarter results, CNBC reported. At least 2.2bn dollars is to come from cutting redundant back-office and corporate functions, including management layers, greater use of artificial intelligence and a reduction in office space.

At least 1bn dollars is to come from streamlining marketing and promotional spending. About 1.4bn is attributed to unifying streaming and broadcast operations and integrating back-end technology, and about 1.4bn to optimising third-party spending, eliminating overlapping expenses and centralising purchasing in a single group.

The company said it could "reduce duplicative spend across an expense base of more than $50 billion", and that it was "confident in achieving these savings, drawing on our playbook from Paramount". The Paramount programme, it said, "is on track to achieve over $2.7 billion in run-rate efficiencies by the end of 2026".

Changes are already in train. Voluntary buyouts were offered last month ahead of formal layoffs, a five-day in-office policy has been adopted, and eight executives departed last week, four from Warner Bros and four from Paramount.

Legacy Paramount Skydance reported third-quarter revenue of 7.03bn dollars against a StreetAccount estimate of 7.04bn, and adjusted EBITDA of 1bn against an estimate of 913.5m. The figures exclude the Warner Bros Discovery acquisition, which closed after the quarter ended.

The company spends more than 30bn dollars a year on shows and films, and expects a 200m dollar headwind in the fourth quarter from underperforming Warner Bros theatrical releases. It plans eventually to merge Paramount+ and HBO Max, starting with a bundle early next year.

Co-chief executive David Ellison said AI tools would speed up production and lower film costs. "We think these tools will help unlock more original storytelling," he said. His co-chief executive, Ynon Kreiz, said content budgets would be optimised: "As one company, we can make smarter choices about how we distribute and monetize both new content and library content."

The arithmetic deserves a moment. Two of the four components are floors, at least 2.2bn and at least 1bn. The other two are approximations, about 1.4bn each. Added together they come to 6.0bn exactly.

This is an unusual outcome. Four quantities, none of them precise, have produced a total that is. The imprecision has not accumulated, as imprecision normally does; it has cancelled, and what emerges is a round number with a decimal place to spare.

The structure also fixes the direction of the error. If two of the components are "at least", then the sum is at least their sum, which makes 6bn not the company's estimate of the savings but the smallest figure the letter permits. Every revision from here can only be upward, and the target has been written so that it cannot be missed from above.

Our analysts note that the base is "more than" 50bn dollars, so the saving is at least 12 per cent of at least that, over at least three years. The only unhedged number in the letter is the one assembled entirely out of hedged ones.

The Department of Unnecessary Research observes that 6bn is also a fifth of a single year's spending on shows and films, and thirty times the quarterly headwind from films that did not work. Both of those comparisons are exact, which is precisely the difficulty.

FOUR NUMBERS, ONE ROUND TOTALQUESTIONABLE ANALYTICS
22Back office
10Marketing
14Streaming tech
14Third party
Each value is the savings figure in units of 100m dollars, as set out in the shareholder letter: 2.2bn, 1bn, 1.4bn and 1.4bn.
THE BORING FACT

In a shareholder letter released on Monday with its third-quarter results, Skydance set out at least $6 billion of planned cost savings over three years in four categories: at least $2.2bn from back-office and corporate functions, at least $1bn from marketing, about $1.4bn from unifying streaming and broadcast operations, and about $1.4bn from third-party spending.

Source: CNBC
OUR PROFESSIONAL CONCLUSION

Because two of the four components are minimums and the other two are approximations, the only exact figure in the letter is the total, which makes $6bn not an estimate of the savings but the smallest number the arithmetic will allow.

REALITY CHECK · FALSE PRECISION

Unfortunately, there's a small problem.

Components rounded to one decimal place summing to a round headline is ordinary disclosure, not concealed precision, and an 'at least' attached to a component is a target for that component rather than a claim about the total's accuracy. Reading a sum of estimates as a measurement is the trick.

THE BS DETECTOR

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Tap the paragraph where this story stopped being true. Then see where everyone else bailed.

 

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