TODAY IN NUMBERS
WEATHER · SATIRE · INCOMMENSURABLE PERCENTAGES

Utah's Soil Is at 78 Per Cent and Its Reservoirs at 49, Which Makes the Ground the Best-Filled Reservoir in the State

Record October rain pushed mountain soil moisture to levels never measured at this point in the year. Reservoirs rose three points over the same month.

Utah's mountain soils entered November at nearly 78% saturation, a level never recorded at this point in the year.

The figure is a statewide average of three sensors at different depths across 144 sites at a range of mountain elevations, collected by the Natural Resources Conservation Service. KSL reported the figures, in a story carried by Deseret News.

"We're kind of in uncharted territory," said Jordan Clayton, a hydrologist with the Conservation Service and director of the Utah Snow Survey.

Context makes the number stranger. Soils in Utah are normally at their wettest during the spring snowpack runoff. The current reading is nearly four percentage points above that normal peak, and about five above the peak actually reached this past spring.

It is four percentage points below the highest level ever recorded, which came as 2023's record snowpack melted. Modern measurements began 20 years ago.

The cause was October. Mountain precipitation for the month landed in the 98th percentile, 20 Conservation Service sites recorded their wettest October on record and another 22 their second wettest. Some sites in the Wasatch, Uinta, southwest and southeast ranges took close to 10 inches.

"We're really seeing it statewide," Clayton told KSL, saying every basin was well above normal.

October is the first month of Utah's water year, so the reading may set the tone for 2027. The wet weeks have also brought flash flooding and rock and landslides, and those risks persist while soils stay saturated.

Wet autumn soils matter because of what happens in spring. Snowmelt runoff is more efficient when the ground beneath the snow is already full, and that runoff feeds the system supplying about 95% of the state's water.

There is a limit to the good news, and Clayton stated it plainly. "The snow has to come," he said. "It can't just be the moist soils."

Over the same month, Utah's statewide reservoir levels rose from 46% to 49%.

Set the two figures side by side and the ranking is not close. Utah's reservoirs are 49% full. Utah's ground is 78% full. On the only measure both of them report, the ground is ahead by 29 points.

This newspaper notes the scale of the facility. It covers the entire mountain area of the state, it filled in a single month, and it took in enough water to reach a level the reservoirs have not approached in years.

Our analysts have looked for its paperwork. The ground has no dam, no spillway and no outlet works. It has no board of trustees, no storage right and no gauge at the bottom. Nothing has been allocated from it to anybody.

Neither can it be operated. The state's largest and fullest reservoir releases its contents slowly, in spring, in a direction decided entirely by gravity, and only on condition that it snows first.

The Department of Unnecessary Research has filed the single objection that matters. Utah has acquired the best-filled reservoir in its history and has no way of turning it on.

TWO UTAH PERCENTAGES, ONE MONTH APARTQUESTIONABLE ANALYTICS
46Reservoirs, 1 Oct (46%)
49Reservoirs, 1 Nov (49%)
78Mountain soil moisture (78%)
Real reported percentages: statewide reservoir capacity at the start of October and of November, and statewide mountain soil moisture saturation at the start of November. The two figures measure different things.
THE BORING FACT

Utah's statewide mountain soil moisture reached nearly 78% saturation at the start of November, higher than the normal spring peak and only four percentage points below the all-time high in 20 years of modern measurement, after one of the state's wettest Octobers on record. Statewide reservoir levels rose from 46% at the start of October to 49% at the start of November.

Source: Deseret News
OUR PROFESSIONAL CONCLUSION

Because soil moisture is reported at 78% and reservoir levels at 49%, the saturated ground is ranked as the state's fullest reservoir, a facility with no dam, no outlet and no means of being turned on.

REALITY CHECK · INCOMMENSURABLE PERCENTAGES

Unfortunately, there's a small problem.

The two percentages measure different things: one is how saturated mountain soils are, the other how much of a reservoir system's storage capacity is filled. Soil moisture cannot be drawn on or delivered, and its value is that it lets spring snowmelt reach the reservoirs rather than soaking away.

THE BS DETECTOR

Where did reality end?

Tap the paragraph where this story stopped being true. Then see where everyone else bailed.

 

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