TODAY IN NUMBERS
WEATHER · SATIRE · OBSERVER-DEPENDENT RECORD

Alice Springs Has the Worst Storm in 40 Years and the Ninth-Windiest October Day in 75

Both figures are exact. One of them was measured at the airport and the other in a Power and Water career.

Editorial cartoon illustration: On a wide red-dirt street in a central Australian town, two workers in high-visibility shirts lift a fallen branch off a bent fence while a leaning power pole waits behind them. A resident stands at the kerb with a broom, surveying the mess. Near the resident's feet, one garden gnome remains perfectly upright in an otherwise flattened flowerbed.
Editorial illustration by The Questionable Times. Based on the verified event; scene is illustrative.

Alice Springs spent Tuesday clearing branches and bracing for more. Monday afternoon's storm brought winds of up to 96 kilometres an hour at the airport, which the Bureau of Meteorology said was the ninth-highest October wind speed in 75 years.

The damage was concentrated on the power network. Multiple bays of overhead lines came down, with poles bent and damaged, and repairs were expected to take a full day. Power and Water had restored electricity to 5,000 houses, while about 4,000 homes remained without power across a widespread area. Extra crews were travelling in from Tennant Creek, Darwin and Katherine.

Northern Territory Emergency Services received 50 requests for assistance from every suburb in town, mostly for trees on houses and cars and for roof damage. A camper trailer was flipped and a trailer smashed.

The council said no part of town was unscathed, with the clean-up concentrated on The Gap and Gillen. The town library and the pool were both damaged and will open later than usual.

The description that travelled furthest came from a senior Power and Water manager in Alice Springs, who called it the worst storm in the 40 years he had been there.

More is expected. The Bureau's duty forecaster, Ruby Cuthbertson, said a south-easterly surge on Tuesday afternoon was likely to bring thunderstorms to Alice Springs, Yulara and Ti Tree, with heavy rain, damaging winds and large hail as the things to watch for. Slow-moving storms north of Alice Springs carry a heavy rainfall risk, and storms at Yulara a damaging wind risk. Thunderstorms are expected to persist later in the week, with clearing the following week.

NT Police asked residents to follow Secure NT for road closures and warnings, to drive to conditions, to avoid flooded areas and to stay well away from fallen powerlines.

Both of the numbers in this story are correct, and this newspaper would like to be precise about why they disagree. The Bureau measured the air. The town measured a career.

On the Bureau's record, eight Octobers have been windier than Monday. On the local record, none has. Both statements hold, and the entire difference between them is 35 years of not having been in Alice Springs.

What follows is that the ranking is portable. It arrives with each new appointment and departs with each retirement, and it can be revised without any change in the weather at all.

A graduate posted to Alice Springs on Monday morning experienced the worst storm in zero years. That is a record on every occasion. It cannot be broken, only matched.

The same logic improves the figure in the other direction, since a town that recruits slowly accumulates longer records without accumulating any more wind.

The Department of Unnecessary Research accordingly reports that to produce a worst-in-75-years storm, Alice Springs needs either more wind than the Bureau has recorded in any of eight previous Octobers, or a manager who has worked there for 75 years.

Only one of those is a staffing matter.

ALICE SPRINGS POWER, TUESDAY MORNINGQUESTIONABLE ANALYTICS
100Houses reconnected
80Homes still without power
Scaled to the larger figure. Power and Water had restored electricity to 5,000 houses while about 4,000 homes remained without power.
THE BORING FACT

Winds of up to 96 km/h were recorded at Alice Springs airport during Monday's storm, which the Bureau of Meteorology said was the ninth-highest October wind speed in 75 years, while a senior Power and Water manager described it as the worst storm in the 40 years he had been there.

Source: ABC News
OUR PROFESSIONAL CONCLUSION

Because a worst-in-40-years storm is measured against the length of one person's time in town rather than the weather record, the ranking travels with the staff, and a new arrival experiences a record storm every time.

REALITY CHECK · OBSERVER-DEPENDENT RECORD

Unfortunately, there's a small problem.

The two claims measure different things and neither is wrong: the Bureau ranks wind speed over 75 years of observations, while a long-serving resident is describing damage and disruption they have personally seen, which no single wind reading captures.

THE BS DETECTOR

Where did reality end?

Tap the paragraph where this story stopped being true. Then see where everyone else bailed.

 

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