TODAY IN NUMBERS
SPORT · SATIRE · ARBITRARY THRESHOLD

Weight-Loss Drugs Stay Legal in Sport Because a Substance Has to Fail Two of Three Tests, and These Fail One

WADA's 2027 prohibited list, in force from 1 January, keeps GLP-1 drugs on the monitoring programme. The agency's own criteria require at least two of three boxes to be ticked.

Editorial cartoon illustration: Three officials in blazers sit behind a long table in a plain conference room, each with a hand raised to shoulder height as though part-way through a vote. A single small glass vial stands alone on a wooden tray in front of them. One of the officials holds a set of old balance scales with an empty pan on each side and studies the level arm closely.
Editorial illustration by The Questionable Times. Based on the verified event; scene is illustrative.

Athletes using the weight-loss drugs Ozempic and Mounjaro may continue to do so under anti-doping rules, after the World Anti-Doping Agency kept the substances on its monitoring programme rather than adding them to its updated prohibited list. The decision was reported by Sabi Hussain for The Times of India.

The 2027 list comes into effect on 1 January and applies globally to signatories of the World Anti-Doping Code, including Indian athletes governed by the National Anti-Doping Agency.

Ozempic, Mounjaro and similar medicines belong to the GLP-1 receptor agonist class, which is widely used for weight management and for the treatment of diabetes.

The agency said the question had been examined. "The prohibited list expert advisory group and the ExCo considered the status of GLP-1 receptor agonists carefully," said Olivier Rabin, WADA's senior director of science and medicine, adding that the existing evidence was insufficient to justify a ban. WADA has commissioned further research into the drugs' effects.

Rabin also issued a warning to athletes, cautioning them against using the drugs without professional supervision, on the grounds that their substantial physiological effects could carry serious risks.

The decision follows a defined test. According to WADA, for a substance to be prohibited it must meet at least two of three criteria: potential performance enhancement, health risks to athletes, or violation of the spirit of sport.

The monitoring programme sits a step below prohibition. Substances on it are watched rather than banned, and in this case WADA has commissioned further research into their effects.

The 2027 list makes other changes. Cannabidiol remains permitted while the primary psychoactive compounds found in cannabis remain prohibited in competition, and the list also specifies which routes of administration are allowed for certain glucocorticoids.

Further research having been commissioned, the status of the GLP-1 class is expected to be revisited.

It is worth doing the arithmetic the code requires. WADA's own warning establishes that the drugs carry serious risks for athletes who take them without supervision, which is the second criterion. Its expert group found the evidence for performance enhancement insufficient, which leaves the first unmet. One criterion is not two, and the substances are therefore permitted.

Stated plainly, the rule is that a medicine may be acknowledged as a health risk to athletes and remain entirely legal, provided it cannot be shown to work. The decisive question is not whether a substance might harm a competitor. It is whether it also helps.

The scoring runs in both directions, and this is where it becomes elegant. A substance that threatens an athlete's health and offends the spirit of sport scores two and is banned, despite conferring no advantage whatsoever. A substance that does nothing but confer an advantage scores one and is permitted.

Our analysts have therefore identified the optimal profile for any compound hoping to clear the 2027 list, and it is not a flattering one. The ideal entrant is mildly unpleasant, ethically unobjectionable and demonstrably ineffective.

In the 2027 rules, the quickest way for a substance to clear itself is to be shown not to work.

THE THREE CRITERIA FOR PROHIBITIONQUESTIONABLE ANALYTICS
33Performance enhancement
33Health risk to athletes
33Spirit of sport
WADA requires a substance to meet at least two of these three criteria before it can be prohibited. The code does not rank them, so equal values are shown for display.
THE BORING FACT

The World Anti-Doping Agency's 2027 prohibited list, which takes effect on 1 January, keeps GLP-1 receptor agonists such as Ozempic and Mounjaro on its monitoring programme rather than banning them. Under WADA's criteria a substance must meet at least two of three tests - potential performance enhancement, health risk to athletes, or violation of the spirit of sport - to be prohibited.

Source: The Times of India
OUR PROFESSIONAL CONCLUSION

Because prohibition requires at least two of three criteria, a substance can be acknowledged as a health risk to athletes and remain entirely legal so long as the evidence that it improves performance is insufficient, which makes not working the surest defence.

REALITY CHECK · ARBITRARY THRESHOLD

Unfortunately, there's a small problem.

The two-of-three test is a threshold for banning a substance, not a ruling that meeting one criterion is acceptable, and the monitoring programme exists precisely to keep gathering evidence on substances sitting below it. "Insufficient evidence" means the question is open, not closed.

THE BS DETECTOR

Tap the paragraph where this story stopped being true. Then see where everyone else bailed.

 

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