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SPORT · SATIRE · SPURIOUS CORRELATION

Australia Beat The World Champions With Eleven Men, Having Spent The Closing Minutes Removing Four Of Their Own

The Wallabies collected four yellow cards in the last quarter of an hour in Perth and finished the match two short of a rugby league side. They won 42-38.

Editorial cartoon illustration: On a floodlit rugby pitch in Perth, a thin line of gold-shirted players spreads itself across a wide defensive line, visibly too few to cover the width of the field. Four more gold-shirted players sit in a row on a bench at the touchline with towels over their knees, watching. A green-shirted forward carries the ball towards the gap with his team-mates fanned out behind him, and the referee jogs alongside holding a stopwatch.
Editorial illustration by The Questionable Times. Based on the verified event; scene is illustrative.

Australia have beaten the reigning world champions South Africa 42-38 at Optus Stadium in Perth, in a Test that ended with the home side two players short of a rugby league team.

The Wallabies led a well-controlled match for more than an hour before the final quarter dissolved into one of the strangest closing passages in recent international rugby.

Four yellow cards went to Australian players in the space of about ten minutes. Captain Harry Wilson went first, for a high shot on Malcolm Marx. Ryan Lonergan followed for an offside infringement that also conceded a penalty try. Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii went for offside in defence, and Hunter Paisami for contact with an opponent's head in a tackle.

With four players in the bin at once, Australia were reduced to 11 men on the field for roughly the last five minutes, with the match still live and South Africa within striking distance.

They did not get there. Australia held on to take the Mandela Challenge Plate, having scored five tries to South Africa's five, including two from Len Ikitau.

"It was a crazy last 10 minutes," Wilson said afterwards. Coach Les Kiss called it "a bizarre finish", and said he did not want the performance before it to be forgotten.

South Africa arrived in Perth as the world champions and as the form side of the southern hemisphere, which gives the result its weight. The Springboks had every structural advantage available in the closing stages and could not convert it into four points.

Rugby union is played fifteen a side. That number appears in the laws, in the team sheet, in the salary cap arithmetic of every professional union and in the training schedule of every national squad. It is the central assumption of the whole enterprise.

Australia tested that assumption in Perth under match conditions, against the strongest opposition available, and the assumption did not survive contact.

The result is the whole of the evidence. A side of fifteen built the position. A side of eleven finished the job and kept the trophy. Whatever the four players in the bin were contributing at the moment they left, the scoreboard arrived at the same place without them.

This newspaper does not suggest the four men were unhelpful. It observes only that the match was won in their absence.

The economics follow quickly. A professional squad is the largest cost on a union's books, and Australia have now demonstrated a 27 per cent reduction in field personnel with the trophy still collected, achieved live, away from the laboratory, against the world champions.

The Department of Unnecessary Research has accordingly written to World Rugby with one question. The laws state that a side may field fifteen players. They have asked the governing body to confirm whether a side is obliged to.

AUSTRALIAN PLAYERS ON THE FIELD, BY STAGE OF THE MATCHQUESTIONABLE ANALYTICS
100Most of the match (15)
80After three cards (12)
73Final five minutes (11)
Bars scaled to a full XV at 100. Australia received four yellow cards in the closing stages and finished with 11 players on the field for roughly five minutes.
THE BORING FACT

Australia beat the reigning world champions South Africa 42-38 at Optus Stadium in Perth, receiving four yellow cards in the closing quarter of an hour and finishing the match with 11 players on the field for roughly the final five minutes.

Source: ABC News
OUR PROFESSIONAL CONCLUSION

Because Australia built their lead with fifteen players and still won the match with eleven, the four players removed made no difference the scoreboard could detect, and the laws' figure of fifteen a side should be treated as a maximum rather than a requirement.

REALITY CHECK · SPURIOUS CORRELATION

Unfortunately, there's a small problem.

Holding a lead for five minutes with eleven players is not the same as playing a Test that way: Australia built their winning position with a full side over an hour, and the short-handed passage was a defensive scramble, not a demonstration. Reading a result won in spite of four cards as evidence that the players did not matter is a spurious correlation drawn from a very short sample.

THE BS DETECTOR

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Tap the paragraph where this story stopped being true. Then see where everyone else bailed.

 

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