TODAY IN NUMBERS
WEATHER · SATIRE · AVERAGING ARTEFACT

Australia's September Was 17 Per Cent Drier Than Average, Made of a Near-Record Wet West and a Near-Record Dry East

The Bureau of Meteorology recorded the nation's second-hottest September and its highest September minimum temperatures on record. Western Australia had its second-wettest; New South Wales its fourth-driest.

Editorial cartoon illustration: Two meteorologists in shirtsleeves stand on either side of a large relief model of Australia laid out on a trestle table in a plain office. One holds a watering can high over the glistening western third of the model; the other stands over the dry eastern side with empty hands, watching a puddle spread across the floor. A third colleague kneels under the table with a bucket.
Editorial illustration by The Questionable Times. Based on the verified event; scene is illustrative.

Australia has had its second-hottest September on record, according to the Bureau of Meteorology's monthly climate summary.

The national area-averaged mean temperature was 2.71C above the 1961-1990 average, the highest September figure since 2013 and the second-highest since national observations began in 1910.

Every state and territory recorded a September mean temperature inside the top ten on record.

The national mean maximum temperature was 2.90C above average, the third-highest on record, with all states and territories in the top ten. The mean minimum was 2.52C above average, which is the highest on record for September.

Western Australia and South Australia both set record September minimum temperatures: 3.19C above average in the west, surpassing records set in 2023 and 2024, and 3.24C above average in South Australia, surpassing a record set in 2013.

Rainfall is where the month divides. The national area-averaged total was 17 per cent below the 1961-1990 average.

Western Australia had its second-wettest September on record, with rainfall 147 per cent above average. New South Wales had its fourth-lowest September rainfall since records began in 1900.

Rain was above average across much of Western Australia, western South Australia, far north Queensland and parts of the Northern Territory, and below average across most of the east and south-east.

Temperature was less divided than rain. Mean maxima sat in the highest 10 per cent of all Septembers for most of the country, with records in parts of northern and eastern Tasmania and small areas of New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. Cape York Peninsula was the exception, with maxima in the lowest 10 per cent.

The national rainfall figure deserves a moment's attention, because of the method by which it is made. It is an area-average: every part of the continent contributes its rain, in proportion to its size, to one number.

That number this September is 17 per cent below average. The west was 147 per cent above it. New South Wales was inside its four driest Septembers in 126 years. Neither of those conditions is 17 per cent below average, and nowhere in Australia had the September that the national figure describes.

The Department of Unnecessary Research has established where the 17 per cent occurred. It occurred in the calculation. Australia, the area-averaged entity, had a mildly dry September. Australia, the landmass, did not have one anywhere.

This is a more capable instrument than it looks. A country may be given any weather at all, provided its extremes are arranged to cancel, and a sufficiently large country can be made average by definition.

The bureau's temperature figures escape the problem only because the heat was general. Second-hottest nationally, top ten in every state and territory: that is a figure with a location, which is to say a real one.

The rain has no such address. It fell, in near-record quantity, on one side of the continent, and failed to fall, in near-record quantity, on the other. The average of the two is a month that Australia had and no Australian attended.

AUSTRALIAN SEPTEMBER ANOMALIESQUESTIONABLE ANALYTICS
100Mean maximum
93Mean
87Mean minimum
September anomalies above the 1961-1990 average of 2.90C for maximum, 2.71C for mean and 2.52C for minimum, scaled to the largest for display.
THE BORING FACT

The Bureau of Meteorology's monthly climate summary records Australia's September 2026 area-averaged mean temperature as 2.71C above the 1961-1990 average, the second-highest for September since national observations began in 1910, with national rainfall 17 per cent below average: a figure combining Western Australia's second-wettest September on record, 147 per cent above average, with New South Wales's fourth-lowest September rainfall since 1900.

Source: Bureau of Meteorology
OUR PROFESSIONAL CONCLUSION

Because the national rainfall total is an area-average of a near-record wet west and a near-record dry east, the 17 per cent shortfall occurred only in the calculation, and no part of Australia experienced the September that Australia is recorded as having.

REALITY CHECK · AVERAGING ARTEFACT

Unfortunately, there's a small problem.

An area-average is meant to summarise a whole continent, and the bureau publishes the state and regional breakdowns alongside it precisely so that the spread is visible. A summary statistic matching no single location is how averages work, not a fault in the measurement.

THE BS DETECTOR

Where did reality end?

Tap the paragraph where this story stopped being true. Then see where everyone else bailed.

 

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