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SCIENCE · SATIRE · PROBABILITY READ AS PROPORTION

Bats Given a 99.2% European Origin, Leaving 0.8% of the Order Unaccounted For

A study of 103 genomes and 44 fossil species places the ancestor of all bats in Late Paleocene Europe, rejecting Africa, Asia and North America.

Editorial cartoon illustration: A small group of researchers in fleeces stand in a dark European woodland at night holding an open laptop and a long-handled net, looking up at the branches. Bats wheel overhead in the gloom. One researcher has lowered the net and is holding a battered clipboard against their chest, waiting patiently, as though expecting an answer.
Editorial illustration by The Questionable Times. Based on the verified event; scene is illustrative.

Bats make up more than one fifth of all living mammal species, yet where and when they first took to the air has been debated for decades. New work points to Europe.

An analysis of 103 bat genomes identifies the European continent as the birthplace of the only mammals capable of powered flight, overturning earlier theories that favoured Africa, Asia or North America. The findings, published in Nature, come from the Bat1K consortium, an international effort to sequence the genomes of all living bat species.

In the first phase of the project, researchers analysed high-quality, chromosome-level genome assemblies from 103 species, 42 of them newly produced, representing at least one species from each of the 21 currently recognised bat families.

They combined that genetic data with 699 anatomical characters drawn from 65 species, including 44 fossil species that predate the Quaternary period. Using statistical models that account for the ages of the fossils, they concluded that the ancestor of all bats lived in Europe in the Late Paleocene.

"Bats have ruled the night skies for about 65 million years, but working out where they first took flight has been more difficult to resolve," said Professor Suzanne Hand of the University of New South Wales. "Advances in genome sequencing and computing have now allowed us to compare and combine data from the DNA of living bats with the fossil record in a way that wasn't previously possible."

The analysis assigned a 99.2% probability to a European origin. The major bat lineages appear to have diversified within a narrow window in the Early Eocene, around 56 million years ago, coinciding with the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, a sharp episode of global warming.

The team also addressed one of the field's most persistent questions: whether laryngeal echolocation evolved before or after bats diversified. Placing the fossil species Vielasia in the oldest branch of the tree indicates that it came first.

"Our analysis shows that the oldest branch of bats already had species that unambiguously echolocated," said Professor Liliana Dávalos of Stony Brook University. "Therefore, based on the tree with these fossils bat echolocation evolved shortly after mammalian flight did."

The genomic data also reorganised the family tree, placing Myzopodidae, found on Madagascar, at the earliest branch within the superfamily Vespertilionoidea, and identifying Emballonuroidea and Vespertilionoidea as sister groups.

"Bats constantly surprise us," said Professor Sonja Vernes, the Bat1K director, at the University of St Andrews. "They are one of evolution's greatest experiments. This extraordinary genomic resource is finally allowing us to understand how their remarkable biology evolved."

The figure that will travel furthest, however, is 99.2%, and this newspaper wishes to be the first to take it at its word.

If the order is 99.2% European, then 0.8% of it is not. Bats number more than 1,500 species. Eight tenths of one per cent of 1,500 is twelve. Somewhere in the night sky there are twelve species of bat from somewhere else, and the study does not name them.

The Department of Unnecessary Research regards this as the most significant open question in mammalian biogeography, and notes that the usual methods of resolving it are unavailable. The fossil record has been searched. The genomes have been sequenced. Forty-four extinct species were consulted and none of them volunteered.

Our analysts have accordingly proposed the only remaining approach, which is to ask. The obstacle is not access. Bats are distributed across every continent except Antarctica, they emerge nightly, and they are not difficult to find.

The obstacle is that the twelve have had sixty-five million years to declare an alternative origin and have used none of it. Laryngeal echolocation, the study confirms, was in place at the oldest branch of the tree, before the modern families separated.

Every bat alive has therefore been broadcasting its position, continuously, since the Paleocene. Not one has ever given a different address.

WHAT THE STUDY COMBINEDQUESTIONABLE ANALYTICS
15Genomes (103)
100Anatomical characters (699)
6Fossil species (44)
3Bat families (21)
The study's own counts, scaled to the largest. They measure different kinds of evidence and are shown together only for size.
THE BORING FACT

A Bat1K consortium study published in Nature analysed 103 chromosome-level bat genomes alongside 699 anatomical characters from 65 species, including 44 fossil species, and assigned a 99.2% probability to a European origin for bats in the Late Paleocene, around 65 million years ago.

Source: Sci.News
OUR PROFESSIONAL CONCLUSION

A 99.2% probability of European origin means 0.8% of bats came from somewhere else, which is twelve of the 1,500-odd species, and none of them has ever said which twelve.

REALITY CHECK · PROBABILITY READ AS PROPORTION

Unfortunately, there's a small problem.

A 99.2% probability is confidence that one hypothesis is correct, not a claim that 99.2% of bats are European. If the hypothesis holds, every living bat descends from that one ancestral population; the remaining 0.8% is doubt about the answer, not a dozen foreign species.

THE BS DETECTOR

Where did reality end?

Tap the paragraph where this story stopped being true. Then see where everyone else bailed.

 

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