TODAY IN NUMBERS
WEATHER · SATIRE · PROSPECTIVE CERTAINTY

Colorado Springs Expects to Break Its Hottest 6 October Record on 6 October, by One Degree

The National Weather Service forecast 83 degrees for Tuesday. The standing record is 82, set in 1975, and September finished within a degree of its own.

Editorial cartoon illustration: A man in a cardigan and a sun hat stands on a short wooden stepladder in the middle of a sunlit municipal square in a Colorado mountain town, holding one hand up into the air with his palm held flat, as though checking the temperature by feel. Below him, people in shorts and sunglasses sit on benches eating ice creams and pay him no attention. Dry foothills rise behind the square under a cloudless sky.
Editorial illustration by The Questionable Times. Based on the verified event; scene is illustrative.

Colorado Springs is forecast to reach 83 degrees on Tuesday, which would make it the hottest 6 October in the city's history. The standing record, 82 degrees, has held since 1975.

The forecast comes from the National Weather Service office in Pueblo, which also closed the books on an unusually warm September. The month averaged 67.8 degrees, nearly five degrees warmer than normal and less than one degree below the record average of 68.7 set in 2019. Five daily heat records were either broken or tied.

September extended a run. August averaged 73.8 degrees, among the warmest since the Weather Service began tracking monthly data in the city 130 years ago, and seven daily heat records were broken or tied in that month alone.

Rain did not keep pace. A wet final week was not enough to bring September's precipitation to average: the month's total was 1.05 inches, three tenths of an inch below normal.

The rest of the week is forecast to be sunny, with light winds and highs easing into the upper 70s. "If you're trying to pick a day to go outside, honestly, just pick any day of the week, because it looks great," said News 5 meteorologist Lauren Brand. Even with the slight cooling, she said, average highs will run about ten degrees above normal for the time of year.

The calm is expected to last through the weekend. "An upper-level low will be pushing in from the Pacific Northwest and with it comes some cooler temperatures," Brand said of the following week.

Looking further out, the Climate Prediction Center gives October a 33 to 40 per cent chance of finishing warmer than normal in Colorado Springs, with monthly precipitation expected to come in close to average at about 0.77 inches.

There is something unusual in the construction of this particular record. It has been announced in advance. The temperature, the date and the margin were all circulated the day before: 83 degrees, 6 October, one degree.

This newspaper regards it as a welcome tidying of the historical record. Records have traditionally been identified afterwards, by people going back through the figures and finding that something had happened. Here the figure was issued first and the day instructed to produce it.

The margin is the impressive part. Eighty-three against eighty-two is the narrowest result a thermometer reading in whole degrees can return. Nothing has been wasted. The 1975 record has not been demolished so much as superseded by precisely the smallest available quantity, which leaves it intact and available for comparison next October at the same resolution.

On the same principle the month's other figures fall into line behind it. September came in less than one degree below the record it did not take, which is the same margin pointing the other way, and therefore the same event considered from the losing side. Five of its days did break records, and none of them had been announced.

The Department of Unnecessary Research asks only that the practice continue. A record stated the day before, to the degree, is not a measurement at all but an appointment, and the city of Colorado Springs is expected to keep it at some point this afternoon.

HOTTEST 6 OCTOBER, COLORADO SPRINGSQUESTIONABLE ANALYTICS
821975 record
832026 forecast
Degrees Fahrenheit: the standing record high for 6 October and Tuesday's forecast high, which would beat it by one degree.
THE BORING FACT

The National Weather Service forecast a high of 83 degrees for Colorado Springs on Tuesday 6 October; if the predicted high is reached, it will be the hottest Oct. 6 in Colorado Springs history, eclipsing the previous record high of 82 set in 1975. September averaged 67.8 degrees, nearly five degrees warmer than normal and less than one degree below the record 68.7 average in 2019.

Source: The Gazette
OUR PROFESSIONAL CONCLUSION

Because the temperature, date and one-degree margin were all published the day before, the record has stopped being a measurement and become an appointment, which the city is expected to keep this afternoon.

REALITY CHECK · PROSPECTIVE CERTAINTY

Unfortunately, there's a small problem.

A forecast is a probability, not a result: the 83-degree figure is what the models expect, and the record only exists if the thermometer agrees. A one-degree margin is also an artefact of rounding to whole degrees, not evidence of precision engineering.

THE BS DETECTOR

Where did reality end?

Tap the paragraph where this story stopped being true. Then see where everyone else bailed.

 

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