TODAY IN NUMBERS
WEATHER · SATIRE · DEFINITIONAL LITERALISM

Mumbai Has Its First Post-Monsoon Heatwave on Friday and Expects a Hotter Saturday That Is Not One

Santacruz recorded 37.8°C, which was 4.7°C above normal. The India Meteorological Department expects around 38°C on Saturday, with no heatwave warning issued.

Editorial cartoon illustration: A weather official in a short-sleeved shirt stands on the flat concrete roof of a city meteorological office in Mumbai at midday, beside a white louvred instrument shelter on legs, squinting into hard sunlight. Two colleagues a few feet away fan themselves with their hands. The official holds a large closed black umbrella straight up over the instrument shelter rather than over himself.
Editorial illustration by The Questionable Times. Based on the verified event; scene is illustrative.

Mumbai spent Friday under a heatwave alert, six days after the monsoon left it.

The Santacruz observatory recorded a maximum of 37.8°C, which was 4.7°C above normal and the second-highest reading in Maharashtra for the day. Malegaon and Jalgaon topped the state at 38.5°C. The minimum was 25.8°C, 0.9°C above normal.

The India Meteorological Department sounded the alert for the districts of Mumbai, Thane, Raigad and Ratnagiri, the city's first post-monsoon heatwave.

High temperatures have persisted since the southwest monsoon withdrew. Withdrawal from Mumbai was declared on 3 October this year, five days earlier than the normal date.

No heatwave warning has been issued for the weekend. The department nonetheless expects "heatwave-like" conditions to prevail on Saturday, with the maximum temperature expected to be around 38°C.

Its local forecast for the city and suburbs over the next 48 hours gives clear skies with "Hot Day Conditions" very likely, and maximum and minimum temperatures of around 36°C and 26°C.

Air quality has deteriorated as well, with the change in the weather and the resumption of construction work after the monsoon. Central Pollution Control Board data put Friday's poorest readings at Deonar on 152, Worli on 140, Bhandup West on 131, Mazgaon on 123 and Malad West on 122.

The weekend forecast contains two temperatures, and they are not the same temperature.

Friday was a heatwave and reached 37.8°C. Saturday is not a heatwave and is expected to reach around 38°C. Saturday is therefore forecast to be warmer than the heatwave while not being one.

This newspaper does not regard that as a contradiction. A heatwave, in the operational sense that matters, is a thing the India Meteorological Department issues. Friday had one issued for it. Saturday does not. The temperature is a separate matter and has no vote.

The same bulletin offers a third figure. The 48-hour local forecast for the city and suburbs gives a maximum of around 36°C, which means Mumbai is expecting 38°C under one heading and 36°C under another, and Hot Day Conditions under a third.

Our analysts at the Department of Unnecessary Research have catalogued the available states. There is a heatwave. There are heatwave-like conditions. There are Hot Day Conditions. Only the first has to be declared, and only the first can be called off.

The sequence is the tidy part. The monsoon was declared withdrawn on 3 October, five days ahead of schedule. The first post-monsoon heatwave was alerted on 9 October. Between the two declarations the city was granted five days of nothing in particular, and did not use them.

Saturday will be hotter than Friday's heatwave and will not be a heatwave, because nobody has issued it one.

MUMBAI, BY DECLARED STATUSQUESTIONABLE ANALYTICS
38Fri heatwave, 37.8°C
38Sat not a heatwave, 38°C
3648h forecast, 36°C
Real figures in degrees Celsius, rounded for display: Santacruz recorded 37.8°C on Friday under a heatwave alert, the IMD expects around 38°C on Saturday with no heatwave warning issued, and its 48-hour local forecast gives a maximum of around 36°C.
THE BORING FACT

Mumbai's Santacruz observatory recorded a maximum of 37.8°C on Friday, 4.7°C above normal, during what the India Meteorological Department called the first post-monsoon heatwave, with an alert for the districts of Mumbai, Thane, Raigad and Ratnagiri. No heatwave warning was issued for the weekend, although the IMD expects "heatwave-like" conditions and a maximum of around 38°C on Saturday.

Source: The Free Press Journal
OUR PROFESSIONAL CONCLUSION

Since a heatwave is something the India Meteorological Department issues rather than something the air does, Saturday can be warmer than Friday's heatwave without being one, and the temperature has no say in the matter.

REALITY CHECK · DEFINITIONAL LITERALISM

Unfortunately, there's a small problem.

Heatwave warnings follow technical criteria about how far temperatures exceed the local normal and for how long, so a single hotter day need not meet them. Different headings in a bulletin cover different areas and forecast periods rather than contradicting each other.

THE BS DETECTOR

Where did reality end?

Tap the paragraph where this story stopped being true. Then see where everyone else bailed.

 

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