With just over a year to go before the men's Rugby World Cup kicks off in Australia, organisers expect a combined stadium attendance of 2.5 million across 52 matches in seven cities.
That figure, they say, would make the tournament the third best-attended event in world sport, behind only the men's Fifa World Cup and the summer Olympic Games.
Next week's main ticket release is the real test of the expanded 24-team format. Visa customers get first access on Monday at noon AEST, with general sales from Thursday.
Chris Stanley, the tournament's managing director, expects matches involving the Wallabies to sell out early in the week. “I'd love to have more matches for the Wallabies to sell, but the reality is there's a set amount,” he said.
Three-quarters of a million seats went in the initial presale. One million tickets are priced under $100, which Stanley presents as the accessibility side of the balance.
The other side is visible at the top of the range. Category 1 seats for Australia against New Zealand in Sydney on 9 October were $635, the same as England v Wales and Ireland v Scotland. The best seats for the final are $1,950, the highest single ticket price in the tournament's history.
For comparison, at the 2023 World Cup in France the cheapest tickets for the opener between the hosts and New Zealand were €80 and the dearest €549. The best seats for that final cost €950.
Organisers predict 250,000 international visitors, around five times the number who came for the Lions tour last year and four times the visitors for the 2003 edition, when 1.87 million tickets were sold in Australia.
Stanley defends the economics. The men's Rugby World Cup is “the financial engine room” of World Rugby, he said, representing about 90% of its revenues and funding international rugby for the following four years.
Melbourne's eight matches will be played at the 53,000-capacity Marvel Stadium rather than the 100,000-seat MCG, to which the NFL has priority access. Stanley is unbothered: “It's the only stadium with a roof.”
There is one qualification attached to the attendance claim, and it arrives in the same breath. The Tour de France is estimated to pass more than 10 million supporters along the roadside.
Ten million is four times 2.5 million. The Tour is therefore not the fourth best-attended event in sport. It is the first, by a margin larger than the entire rugby tournament, and it is not in the table.
The reason is procedural. A crowd is counted at a turnstile, and the Tour de France does not have one. Its spectators are standing beside a road the race happens to be using, which for ranking purposes means they are not there.
The Department of Unnecessary Research considers this the strongest competitive position in world sport. The Tour's attendance cannot be beaten because it cannot be established. Its venue has no capacity, its cheapest ticket is free and its most expensive ticket is also free, and the best seat in the house is a kerb that somebody got to early.
Next week the most expensive ticket in the history of rugby goes on sale at $1,950. The best-attended event in sport will sell nothing at all, and will finish fourth.